By
February 5, 2025
The Quantum Threat Timeline: Why Organizations Must Act Now
Quantum computing is advancing rapidly, with recent breakthroughs accelerating the timeline for cryptographic risk. Google's Willow, a 105-qubit superconducting quantum processor, has demonstrated exponential error reduction and computational power far beyond classical capabilities—a significant step toward scalable quantum computing. Meanwhile, NIST’s announcement of post-quantum cryptographic (PQC) standards in August 2024 underscores that the time to begin the quantum-safe transition is now.
In partnership with the Global Risk Institute, evolutionQ has co-authored the Quantum Threat Timeline Report 2024. Now in its sixth year, this annual report provides expert insights on when a Cryptographically-Relevant Quantum Computer (CRQC) could emerge—and what organizations must do to prepare.
The Quantum Threat: A Matter of "When," Not "If"
A CRQC is a quantum computer powerful enough to break widely used encryption, including RSA-2048, within 24 hours. While today’s quantum processors are still far from reaching this threshold, 32 global experts surveyed for the report estimate an increasing likelihood of a CRQC’s development within the next decade:
- 19-34 percent chance within 10 years (up from 17-31 percent in 2023).
- 5-14 percent chance within five years (up from 4-11 percent in 2023).
These growing probabilities signal that organizations must take quantum risk seriously now. Delaying action could lead to compromised data security and costly remediation efforts.
Why the Urgency?
Two Key RisksMigration to Quantum-Safe Cryptography Takes Time
Transitioning to quantum-safe cryptographic infrastructure is a complex, multi-year process. Organizations that underestimate this challenge may wait too long, increasing the risk of rushed, poorly executed migrations that could leave critical systems exposed and lead to prolonged operational disruption.
"Harvest Now, Decrypt Later" (HNDL) Attacks Are Happening Today
Even though a CRQC does not exist yet, adversaries are already collecting encrypted data today with the intent to decrypt it once quantum computers become powerful enough. Sensitive communications, financial transactions, and classified data are at immediate risk if organizations do not proactively implement quantum-safe cryptographic strategies.
Key Trends Accelerating the Quantum Threat Timeline
The report identifies several factors pushing quantum computing forward:
- Rising Investment: Government and corporate funding in quantum computing remains strong, fueling rapid innovation. Public market interest also surged in 2024, with several quantum companies seeing major stock gains in 2024 and more companies expected to go public soon. The UN’s designation of 2025 as the “Year of Quantum” is expected to drive further public and private investment, as the global quantum computing market is projected to grow from $1.41 billion in 2024 to $4.24 billion by 2030.
- Advancements in Quantum Error Correction (QEC): Several companies and institutions, including Google, Quantinuum, QuEra, Harvard University, MIT, IBM, and others, demonstrated major progress in reducing quantum errors, a key hurdle toward practical quantum computing.
- Diverse Quantum Architectures: Competing approaches—including superconducting, trapped ion, and cold-atom systems—increase the probability of breakthroughs.
- Global Competition: While North America leads in quantum computing, China is rapidly advancing, with experts predicting that global quantum leadership could shift within the next five years.
The Path Forward: How to Prepare for the Quantum Era
New quantum-safe cryptographic solutions—including NIST’s PQC standards—are now available, but implementing them requires careful planning. Organizations should:
- Assess their cryptographic risk: Conduct quantum risk assessments to determine exposure.
- Map out migration plans: Establish a multi-year roadmap for transitioning to PQC.
- Implement crypto-agility: Adopt hybrid encryption and defense-in-depth strategies to maintain security during the transition.
- Engage with experts: Work with trusted partners like evolutionQ to develop a strategic, risk-based approach.
evolutionQ offers quantum-safe roadmap services. Please reach out to us if we can help.
Download the Full Report
The Quantum Threat Timeline Report 2024 offers detailed insights into expert projections, key risk factors, and recommended actions.
Join Our Webinar: Cyber Risk Implications of the Quantum Threat Timeline
To dive deeper into these findings and their impact on cybersecurity strategy, join our upcoming webinar with evolutionQ CEO Dr. Michele Mosca and Vanda Vicars from the Global Risk Institute.
Date: February 6, 2025
Time: 11:00 AM - 12:00 PM EST
Speakers:
- Dr. Michele Mosca, CEO, evolutionQ & Professor, University of Waterloo
- Vanda Vicars, Executive Consultant, Global Risk Institute
